Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:55 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 1D 5L at EGO Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Damac's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ettifaq. A 0.50 PPG lead over Damac (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG and Damac 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.816 / defence 0.941 | Damac attack 0.780 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.466. Data: 65 Al-Ettifaq games / 65 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Damac 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.28 / Damac 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.816 / def 0.941 | Damac attack 0.780 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Damac xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 16:55 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 1 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.60
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.36
1.08
Damac xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.08 for Damac, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 24W 19D 22L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 19W 18D 28L from 65 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.15 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 18D 28L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.28 PPG; Damac away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Damac 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 28% of games; Damac in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Ettifaq and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG and Damac 1.08 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Damac landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.40 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.