Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.70 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taawon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Taawon, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Al Taawon winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 60% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG and Al Taawon 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 1.013 | Al Taawon attack 1.114 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.377. Data: 52 Al-Ettifaq games / 52 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.13. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.08 / Al Taawon 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / def 1.013 | Al Taawon attack 1.114 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Taawon xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 25% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 5W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.11x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
25%
4.01
28%
3.57
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.63
1.55
Al Taawon xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
5%
18.97
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.55 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 13D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.60 PPG from 52 outings (24W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.60 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (11W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.46 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.27 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al Taawon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al Taawon 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Ettifaq) and 38% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 35% of games; Al Taawon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 42% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 38% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Taawon 1-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG and Al Taawon 1.55 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 47%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taawon's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.52 PPG, Al Taawon 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.