Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 2D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Raed's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Raed 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 52% versus Al-Raed 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Raed 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.55 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.206 / defence 1.092 | Al-Raed attack 1.024 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.099. Data: 33 Al-Ettifaq games / 33 Al-Raed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 3.33. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.55 / Al-Raed 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.206 / def 1.092 | Al-Raed attack 1.024 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 45% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.00
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.78
1.23
Al-Raed xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.23 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 16L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.15 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 11W 6D 16L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Raed have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Ettifaq and 69% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 56% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 69% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Raed defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.55 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.21 / defence 1.09 against Al-Raed attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Raed 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG, Al-Raed 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.