Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 59% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.11 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.109 / defence 1.328 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.402 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 14% | Draw 21% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 65%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 7.14 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 14% | Draw 21% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.11 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.109 / def 1.328 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.402 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 14% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 65% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.11x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 2.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
14%
7.17
21%
4.76
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.54
2.44
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
7.17
14%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
9%
11.45
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
1%
82.08
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.44 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 8D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.28 PPG from 39 outings (27W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.35 points per game from 20 outings (15W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 4L in their last 39 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ettifaq at 60%, Al-Qadisiyah FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Ettifaq and 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.