Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 March 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 0 for Al-Nassr and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Nassr 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.725 / defence 1.201 | Al-Nassr attack 1.054 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.149. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Al-Ettifaq games / 23 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 2.04. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.92 / Al-Nassr 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.725 / def 1.201 | Al-Nassr attack 1.054 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Nassr xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 24% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.74
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.38
1.45
Al-Nassr xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.93
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.45 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 8D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (13W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.00 points per game from 11 outings (7W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 13W 2D 7L in their last 22 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Nassr 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 46% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 36%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 46% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 46% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 1.45 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Al-Nassr attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 49%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.