Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ettifaq 1.80 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Nassr and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 43% versus Al-Nassr 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 35% | Al-Nassr 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Nassr 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 0.835 | Al-Nassr attack 1.392 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.285. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Al-Ettifaq games / 37 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Nassr 2.22. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Nassr 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.18 / Al-Nassr 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / def 0.835 | Al-Nassr attack 1.392 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.90
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.67
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.49 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 12D 10L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.35 PPG from 37 outings (27W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.56 points per game from 18 outings (15W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.86 scored and 1.22 conceded. Al-Nassr's attacking output running into Al-Ettifaq's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 70%.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 12D 10L in their last 37 games (1.54 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 27W 6D 4L in their last 37 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al-Nassr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 39% for Al-Ettifaq and 83% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 67% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 83% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 0-3 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Nassr 1.49 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Al-Nassr attack 1.39 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 45%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 35%, Al-Nassr 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.