Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al Kholood travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Kholood haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Kholood in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 59% versus Al Kholood 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 53% | Al Kholood 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Al Kholood 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.913 / defence 0.937 | Al Kholood attack 0.946 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.435. Data: 34 Al-Ettifaq games / 34 Al Kholood games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 24% | Al Kholood 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Al Kholood 3.45. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Kholood 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 24% | Al Kholood 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.69 / Al Kholood 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.913 / def 0.937 | Al Kholood attack 0.946 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 28 August 2025 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.19
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.96
1.27
Al Kholood xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.27 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 14W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Kholood's form line: 12W 4D 18L from 34 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. Al Kholood haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.47 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (6W 2D 9L).
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al Kholood
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 4D 18L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Kholood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Kholood 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 47%, Al Kholood 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Ettifaq) and 59% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 71% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 59% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Kholood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Kholood 2-1 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Al Kholood 1.27 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Al Kholood attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 24% | Al Kholood 29%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Kholood 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.47 PPG, Al Kholood 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.