Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 55% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.138 / defence 1.267 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.527 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.527 — the away xG of 2.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Al-Ettifaq games / 38 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 13% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 7.69 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 13% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.20 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.138 / def 1.267 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.527 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 13% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 68% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.53x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.72.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
13%
7.48
18%
5.44
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.92
2.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
7.48
13%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
7%
15.17
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
1%
113.43
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.72 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 0L across 38 games — 2.53 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 14W 5D 0L across 19 trips, a 2.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.63 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 29W 9D 0L in their last 38 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Ettifaq and 63% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 63% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.