Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Ettifaq take on Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 30 September 2021 at 18:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Pro League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 1.33 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 100% and Al-Fateh 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 83% | Al-Fateh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / defence 1.198 | Al-Fateh attack 0.826 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.274. Data: 6 Al-Ettifaq games / 6 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fateh 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 100% | Al-Fateh 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 18:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / def 1.198 | Al-Fateh attack 0.826 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:20 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
34%
2.91
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.55
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.26 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Al-Ettifaq's scoring rate against Al-Fateh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ettifaq at 100%, Al-Fateh at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Al-Ettifaq) and 0% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh finished level at 0-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Al-Fateh attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 83%, Al-Fateh 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.