Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 3 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Fateh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.51 xG and Al-Fateh 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.874 / defence 1.276 | Al-Fateh attack 0.850 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.476. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 46 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fateh 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.51 / Al-Fateh 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.874 / def 1.276 | Al-Fateh attack 0.850 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 7W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.57
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.11
1.60
Al-Fateh xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
7%
14.58
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.60 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 12D 15L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 10W 13D 23L from 46 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 8D 12L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.11 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 23L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 61%, Al-Fateh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ettifaq) and 39% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fateh in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 56% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 39% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.