Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Al Diriyah take on Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to face Al Diriyah in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Diriyah (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Diriyah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Diriyah's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 games at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al Diriyah half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Diriyah 33% versus Al-Fayha 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Fayha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 0.88 xG and Al-Fayha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.591 / defence 0.904 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al Diriyah's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al Diriyah games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 28% | Draw 38% | Al-Fayha 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Al-Fayha 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al Diriyah 43% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 28% | Draw 38% | Al-Fayha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Diriyah 0.88 / Al-Fayha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.591 / def 0.904 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Fayha xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 28% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Fayha in?
Al Diriyah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Diriyah's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.74x) against Al Diriyah's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
38%
2.66
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
1.86
0.98
Al-Fayha xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 0.98 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Diriyah come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Diriyah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Al Diriyah against 0.92 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Diriyah's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Diriyah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Diriyah are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Diriyah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Diriyah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Diriyah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 17%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Diriyah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Diriyah 50%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Al Diriyah and 50% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 33%; Al Diriyah have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Diriyah play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.