Al Baten 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Thursday 23 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
Damac (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Damac's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al Baten, 1.30 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Baten lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Damac — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 43% versus Damac 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 43% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.38 xG and Damac 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 1.025 / defence 1.178 | Damac attack 0.764 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.285. Data: 28 Al Baten games / 28 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 42% | Draw 27% | Damac 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Damac 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Baten at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Baten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 50% | Damac 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 42% | Draw 27% | Damac 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Baten 1.38 / Damac 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 1.025 / def 1.178 | Damac attack 0.764 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Damac xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Damac kick off?
Al Baten vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 June 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Damac?
Al Baten 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Baten vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Damac part of?
Al Baten vs Damac is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 42% chance of winning, Damac a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Baten and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Baten and Damac in?
Al Baten (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Damac (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 1.02x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.76x) against Al Baten's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.76
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Damac xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.16 for Damac, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten's recent record stands at 7W 8D 13L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 9L across 28 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.29 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Damac have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Damac away?
Al Baten's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.43 PPG; Damac away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Damac in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Damac?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Damac 1-0 Al Baten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 43%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Baten) and 57% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 36% of games; Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Baten's recent matches and 50% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Baten's recent games and 57% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Damac tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Damac in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Baten edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Damac 2-1 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.38 xG and Damac 1.16 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Damac attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 42% | Draw 27% | Damac 32%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 43%, Damac 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Al Baten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.