Al Baten 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Baten at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to Al-Batin FC Stadium to face Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 11:50 UTC.
Current Form
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten at Al-Batin FC Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Baten against 0.60 for Al-Faisaly FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Baten 0W, Al-Faisaly FC 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 48% versus Al-Faisaly FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 43% | Al-Faisaly FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.65 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.975 / defence 1.328 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.517 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.209. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Al Baten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Al Baten games / 21 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 56% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Faisaly FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Baten (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Baten are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 40% | Al-Faisaly FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 11:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 56% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Baten 1.65 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.975 / def 1.328 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.517 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 11:50 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Baten 1 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 56% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.52x) against Al Baten's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.80
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.48
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
29.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Baten and 0.83 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Al Baten have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 4W 7D 10L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 4W 9D 8L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Al Baten against 1.00 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Baten have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al Baten's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Baten
1
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Baten have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 40%, Al-Faisaly FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al Baten and 30% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Baten's recent matches and 40% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Baten's recent games and 30% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Baten edge out Al-Faisaly FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.65 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Faisaly FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.97 / defence 1.33 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.52 / defence 1.44, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 56% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 18%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 43%, Al-Faisaly FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.90 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.