Al Baten 1-3 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Baten host Abha at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Baten are significantly better at Al-Batin FC Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Abha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Abha have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Baten 0.80 PPG, Abha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Abha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Baten trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Abha trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 38% versus Abha 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 49% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.36 xG and Abha 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.939 / defence 1.585 | Abha attack 0.977 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.093. Data: 37 Al Baten games / 37 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 31% | Draw 24% | Abha 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Abha 2.22. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 50% | Abha 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 31% | Draw 24% | Abha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Baten 1.36 / Abha 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.939 / def 1.585 | Abha attack 0.977 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Abha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Abha xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Abha kick off?
Al Baten vs Abha kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Abha?
Al Baten 1 - 3 Abha.
Where is Al Baten vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Abha part of?
Al Baten vs Abha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 31% chance of winning, Abha a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Baten and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al Baten 1W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Abha in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.12
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Baten xG
Total xG
3.05
1.69
Abha xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
17.77
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.69 for Abha, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Al Baten have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 8W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 11W 9D 17L from 37 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 0.92 PPG, Abha on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Baten have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Abha have gone 3W 3D 12L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.89 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 10D 19L in their last 37 games (0.92 PPG), while Abha have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Abha away?
Al Baten's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.33 PPG; Abha away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Baten and Abha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Baten's record when hosting Abha specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Abha have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Abha 3-2 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Abha?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 44%, Abha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Baten) and 44% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 39% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Baten's recent matches and 44% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Baten's recent games and 44% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Abha tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Abha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Baten 1-3 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.36 xG and Abha 1.69 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Abha outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.94 / defence 1.58 against Abha attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 31% | Draw 24% | Abha 45%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 49%, Abha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.92 PPG, Abha 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.