Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Damac, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Damac in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Damac 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Damac 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.433 / defence 0.758 | Damac attack 0.745 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.440. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 60 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 16% | Damac 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Damac 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 16% | Damac 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 / Damac 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.433 / def 0.758 | Damac attack 0.745 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Damac xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 74% chance of winning, Damac a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 3 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.43) and Damac's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.20
10%
10.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.30
0.81
Damac xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.20
16%
Draw
10.02
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
8%
12.09
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
1%
121.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.81 for Damac, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 60 games, going 40W 9D 11L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.95 PPG from 60 outings (13W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 21W 6D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.02 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 games (2.15 PPG), while Damac have gone 13W 18D 29L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Damac away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.30 PPG; Damac away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Damac in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Damac specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 63%, Damac 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 47% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Damac in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 57% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 47% of Damac's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Damac in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Damac 0.81 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Damac landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.43 / defence 0.76 against Damac attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 16% | Damac 10%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Damac 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Damac's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.