Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 16:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 games at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 1W 3D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 1.20 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 89% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Al Taawon and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% and Al Taawon 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% | Al Taawon 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.109 / defence 1.219 | Al Taawon attack 1.043 / defence 1.627. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.123. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.627 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 18 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 3.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al Taawon 89% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 / Al Taawon 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.109 / def 1.219 | Al Taawon attack 1.043 / def 1.627 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al Taawon xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:20 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.11x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.22
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.43
1.43
Al Taawon xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
4%
28.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.43 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 4W 8D 6L from 18 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.11 PPG, Al Taawon on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.61 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%, Al Taawon at 89%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 89% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 78% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 89% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 89% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.43 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 1.63, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 26%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%, Al Taawon 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.11 PPG, Al Taawon 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.