Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 35%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 January 2022, 15:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2W 4D 1L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al Shabab trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% versus Al Shabab 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 29% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG and Al Shabab 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.988 / defence 1.048 | Al Shabab attack 0.879 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.067. Data: 14 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 14 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Al Shabab 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Al Shabab 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 15:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 / Al Shabab 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.988 / def 1.048 | Al Shabab attack 0.879 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Shabab xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:50 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 4 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.99) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.22
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
1.98
0.98
Al Shabab xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.98 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 3W 6D 5L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%, Al Shabab 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 33% for Al Shabab.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Shabab in 50%; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 33% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 33% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG and Al Shabab 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Al Shabab attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 34%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.