Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to Alinma Stadium to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at Alinma Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Alinma Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at Alinma Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2.30 for Al-Nassr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% versus Al-Nassr 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.15 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.619 / defence 0.734 | Al-Nassr attack 1.293 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.375. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.619 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 42 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Nassr 5.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Nassr 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Alinma Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.15 / Al-Nassr 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.619 / def 0.734 | Al-Nassr attack 1.293 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Alinma Stadium.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Alinma Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 5W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.62) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.29x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.87
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.46
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
2%
43.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.30 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 42 games, going 30W 6D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.50 PPG from 42 outings (34W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.50 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 17W 3D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.20 points per game from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.62 scored and 0.83 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Nassr in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 30W 6D 6L in their last 42 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 3D 5L in their last 42 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.70 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, Al-Nassr 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 70% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 55% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 70% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ahli Jeddah's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alinma Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.15 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.62 / defence 0.73 against Al-Nassr attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 20%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%, Al-Nassr 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.29 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.