Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Al Khaleej Saihat 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.175 / defence 0.822 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.156 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.444. Data: 49 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 49 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.175 / def 0.822 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.156 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 52% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.18) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.51
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.37
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
4%
28.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.37 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 49 games, going 31W 8D 10L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (17W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.55 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 8D 10L in their last 49 games (2.06 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.16 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 64%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 76% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 76% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 76% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.