Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46%, yet in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 2W 5D 2L from 9 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 4W 3D 0L from 7 Pro League matches — 2.14 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.14. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 0.92 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.22). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.48 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.140 / defence 0.988 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.143. Data: 9 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 7 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.70. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC (2.14 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.48 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.140 / def 0.988 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.949 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:50 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.72
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.07 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 0L across 7 games — 2.14 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ahli Jeddah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.48 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 27%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.