Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (1.10 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Hazm 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% versus Al-Hazm 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Al-Hazm 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.161 / defence 1.294 | Al-Hazm attack 0.612 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.171. Data: 16 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 16 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Hazm 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% | Al-Hazm 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 / Al-Hazm 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.161 / def 1.294 | Al-Hazm attack 0.612 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.16x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.61x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.61
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.42
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.93 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 7D 6L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.69 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 75%, Al-Hazm 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 25% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 25% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 25% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.16 / defence 1.29 against Al-Hazm attack 0.61 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, Al-Hazm 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.