Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 February 2022 at 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 3W 5D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% versus Al-Fayha 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 32% | Al-Fayha 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 xG and Al-Fayha 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.006 / defence 1.130 | Al-Fayha attack 0.637 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.202. Data: 20 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 19 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fayha 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Fayha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Feb 2022, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 / Al-Fayha 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.006 / def 1.130 | Al-Fayha attack 0.637 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:55 on Thursday 17 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.17
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.12
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.86 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 5L across 19 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.21 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.84 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 33% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 33% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 xG and Al-Fayha 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Al-Fayha attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 24%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 32%, Al-Fayha 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.21 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.