Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 4–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Fateh 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.72 xG and Al-Fateh 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / defence 0.752 | Al-Fateh attack 0.954 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 45 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Fateh 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Fateh 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.72 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Fateh 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Fateh 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.72 / Al-Fateh 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / def 0.752 | Al-Fateh attack 0.954 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Fateh xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 8 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 72% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.61x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.72. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.95x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
72%
1.40
18%
5.52
10%
9.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.75
1.03
Al-Fateh xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
9.67
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
7%
15.17
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
146.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.03 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 31W 6D 6L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 10W 13D 20L from 43 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.70 PPG from 20 outings (17W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.12 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 6D 6L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.70 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, Al-Fateh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 40% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 60% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 40% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.