Abha 3-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Abha face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Abha and Al Okhdood meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Abha's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Abha's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Okhdood away from home: 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al Okhdood 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 64% | Al Okhdood 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.858 / defence 1.026 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.427. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Abha's last 41 games and Al Okhdood's last 11.
Result probabilities: Abha 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 30%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.41 | Draw 3.55 | Al Okhdood 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Abha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Abha 1.26 / Al Okhdood 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.858 / def 1.026 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Abha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Abha vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Abha vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Abha vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Okhdood?
Abha 3 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Abha vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Okhdood part of?
Abha vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 42% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Abha and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Abha vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Abha's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.71x) against Abha's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Abha's last 41 games and Al Okhdood's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
42%
2.41
28%
3.55
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Abha xG
Total xG
2.29
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Abha vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Abha and 1.03 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Abha have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 3W 1D 7L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Okhdood's form line: 2W 1D 8L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Abha against 0.64 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 5 home games (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.64 PPG overall record — Al Okhdood travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
Abha (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Abha
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Abha vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Abha and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Okhdood away?
Abha's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.80 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Abha and Al Okhdood, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Abha
0
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Abha vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Okhdood?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Abha have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Al Okhdood 4-0 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 60%, Al Okhdood 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Abha) and 20% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Abha vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Abha and Al Okhdood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Abha's recent matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Abha and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Abha's recent games and 20% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Abha's recent matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Okhdood 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Okhdood 3-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 30%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 64%, Al Okhdood 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 0.91 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.