Abha 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Fayha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022 at 16:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 5W 3D 2L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Abha have won 0, Al-Fayha 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 48% versus Al-Fayha 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 42% | Al-Fayha 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.08 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.931 / defence 1.202 | Al-Fayha attack 0.785 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.094. Data: 33 Abha games / 33 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 34%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fayha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 30% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Abha 1.08 / Al-Fayha 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.931 / def 1.202 | Al-Fayha attack 0.785 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Abha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Abha vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Abha 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Abha vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Fayha part of?
Abha vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Abha and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in?
Abha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Abha's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.36
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Abha xG
Total xG
2.12
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Abha and 1.03 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Abha have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 8D 15L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 8W 12D 13L from 33 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 6D 9L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.67 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 12D 13L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Fayha away?
Abha's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.62 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Fayha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 50%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Abha and 25% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Abha's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Abha's recent games and 25% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.08 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 34%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 42%, Al-Fayha 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.