Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Abha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Abha (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 0W 2D 3L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.50 PPG clear of Abha in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Abha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Abha 1W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Abha — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 82%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 46% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 91%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.19 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.592 / defence 0.977 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.114 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Abha's attack strength of 0.592 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Abha games / 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.22. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Abha 1.19 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.592 / def 0.977 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.114 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.59) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.11x) against Abha's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
26%
3.85
29%
3.41
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Abha xG
Total xG
2.80
1.60
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
5%
19.15
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Abha and 1.60 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha's recent record stands at 0W 3D 8L from 11 games, a 0.27 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 7W 0D 4L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Abha have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.55 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 games (0.27 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 0D 4L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.40 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-6 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 5 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Abha and 100% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Abha have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Abha's games and 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Abha's matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Abha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.