Zenit 3-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Zenit welcome Akhmat to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 outings — a 2.33 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 3W 0D 3L from 6 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 0.83 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Akhmat trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 83% and Akhmat 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zenit 50% | Akhmat 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.48 xG and Akhmat 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.120 / defence 1.049 | Akhmat attack 0.803 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.230. Akhmat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Zenit's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Zenit games / 6 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 46% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 25%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Akhmat 4.00. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 83% | Akhmat 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 46% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Zenit 1.48 / Akhmat 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.120 / def 1.049 | Akhmat attack 0.803 / def 1.343 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Zenit (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Akhmat xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 3 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 46% chance of winning, Akhmat a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in?
Zenit (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Akhmat (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.12) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.39
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.51
1.04
Akhmat xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zenit and 1.04 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 4W 2D 0L from 6 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 3L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Akhmat in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Akhmat runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zenit at 83%, Akhmat at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Zenit and 83% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Zenit's games and 83% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zenit's matches and 83% of Akhmat's.
Do Zenit and Akhmat tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 3-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.48 xG and Akhmat 1.04 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Akhmat attack 0.80 / defence 1.34, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 46% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 25%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 50%, Akhmat 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zenit scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.