Ural 1-1 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sochi at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs FC Sochi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ural and FC Sochi meet at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ural's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Ekaterinburg Arena this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Sochi have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi away from home this season: 4W 0D 4L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Sochi arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ural, 1 for FC Sochi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with FC Sochi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
FC Sochi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 20% versus FC Sochi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 13% | FC Sochi 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.79 xG and FC Sochi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.568 / defence 0.930 | FC Sochi attack 0.891 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.099. Ural's attack strength of 0.568 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Ural games / 15 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 30% | Draw 34% | FC Sochi 36%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | FC Sochi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ural's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sochi at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sochi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ural 25% | FC Sochi 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 30% | Draw 34% | FC Sochi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Ural 0.79 / FC Sochi 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.568 / def 0.930 | FC Sochi attack 0.891 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Sochi xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC Sochi kick off?
Ural vs FC Sochi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Sochi?
Ural 1 - 1 FC Sochi.
Where is Ural vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Sochi part of?
Ural vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 30% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ural and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Sochi?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 0 | FC Sochi 1W.
What form are Ural and FC Sochi in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ural's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against FC Sochi's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — FC Sochi's attack (0.89x) against Ural's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
30%
3.39
34%
2.91
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Ural xG
Total xG
1.70
0.91
FC Sochi xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 16.6 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Ural and 0.91 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ural come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 6D 7L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sochi sit at 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (9W 0D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ural's home form reads 1W 4D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sochi have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ural are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; FC Sochi in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 9W 0D 6L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC Sochi away?
FC Sochi's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.88 PPG; FC Sochi away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Ural or FC Sochi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Sochi in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sochi won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Sochi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
3
Draws
2
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Sochi?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, FC Sochi have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when FC Sochi 2-2 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and FC Sochi?
FC Sochi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 25%, FC Sochi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Ural) and 75% (FC Sochi).
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 62% of games; FC Sochi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC Sochi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ural's recent matches and 62% of FC Sochi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Ural's recent games and 75% of FC Sochi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and FC Sochi tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural and FC Sochi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Ural and FC Sochi drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.79 xG and FC Sochi 0.91 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.57 / defence 0.93 against FC Sochi attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 30% | Draw 34% | FC Sochi 36%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 13%, FC Sochi 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Sochi's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.