Ural 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Ural welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Nizhny Novgorod's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Ural's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Ural's 0% and Nizhny Novgorod's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.65 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.853 / defence 1.297 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.666 / away 1.714. Data: 1 Ural games / 1 Nizhny Novgorod games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ural 12% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 67%. Fair-value odds: Ural 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Nizhny Novgorod 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Nizhny Novgorod (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 12% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 41% | xG Ural 0.65 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.853 / def 1.297 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.666 / away 1.714 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Nizhny Novgorod xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Ural 1 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 12% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ural and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Ural (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.85x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
12%
8.26
21%
4.76
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.0%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Ural xG
Total xG
2.54
1.89
Nizhny Novgorod xG
8.26
12%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
2%
54.65
35%
2.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 14.9 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Ural and 1.89 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nizhny Novgorod sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nizhny Novgorod carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Nizhny Novgorod in 0%.
Defensively: Nizhny Novgorod in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ural or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ural's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ural
3
Draws
3
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 0, Nizhny Novgorod have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
Nizhny Novgorod have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ural's recent matches and 0% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ural's recent games and 0% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural and Nizhny Novgorod share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Ural and Nizhny Novgorod drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.65 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.89 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ural 12% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 67%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 100%, Nizhny Novgorod 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nizhny Novgorod arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ural scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.