Ural 1-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ural welcome FC Rostov to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Premier League appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
FC Rostov — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Rostov are 0.60 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 20% versus FC Rostov 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ural 20% | FC Rostov 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.75 xG and FC Rostov 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.679 / defence 1.197 | FC Rostov attack 0.896 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.313. Ural's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Ural games / 5 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 20% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 53%. Fair-value odds: Ural 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | FC Rostov 1.89. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ural 33% | FC Rostov 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 20% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Ural 0.75 / FC Rostov 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.679 / def 1.197 | FC Rostov attack 0.896 / def 1.140 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC Rostov xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC Rostov kick off?
Ural vs FC Rostov kicked off at 14:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Ural 1 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Ural vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Rostov part of?
Ural vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 20% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ural and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in?
Ural (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
20%
5.02
27%
3.65
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Ural xG
Total xG
2.16
1.41
FC Rostov xG
5.02
20%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
5%
20.53
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Ural and 1.41 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Ural have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 1D 4L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; FC Rostov in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Ural won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ural
2
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, FC Rostov have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Ural 0-1 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 20%, FC Rostov 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Ural) and 60% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Ural's recent matches and 80% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ural's recent games and 60% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural and FC Rostov finished level at 1-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.75 xG and FC Rostov 1.41 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against FC Rostov attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 20% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 53%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 20%, FC Rostov 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ural scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm. FC Rostov conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.