Ural 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ural welcome CSKA Moscow to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. CSKA Moscow are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ural 20% | CSKA Moscow 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ural 20% | CSKA Moscow 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.88 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.745 / defence 0.952 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.958 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.204. Ural's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Ural games / 10 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 29% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | CSKA Moscow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ural 33% | CSKA Moscow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 29% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ural 0.88 / CSKA Moscow 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.745 / def 0.952 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.958 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Ural vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Ural 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Ural vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Ural vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 29% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ural and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and CSKA Moscow in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
29%
3.47
31%
3.25
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Ural xG
Total xG
1.98
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ural and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ural and 1.10 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ural's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.30 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.20 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ural or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ural's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when CSKA Moscow 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 40%, CSKA Moscow 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ural and 60% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ural's recent matches and 60% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ural's recent games and 60% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.88 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.74 / defence 0.95 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 29% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 40%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 20%, CSKA Moscow 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.