Torpedo Moskva 0-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ural travel to Arena Khimki to take on Torpedo Moskva. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torpedo Moskva stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Khimki, Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 1D 7L this season (9 games, 0.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ural's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Torpedo Moskva's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Torpedo Moskva, 1 for Ural and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Ural winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Torpedo Moskva in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Ural in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 33% versus Ural 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 33% | Ural 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 1.03 xG and Ural 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.622 / defence 1.177 | Ural attack 1.116 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.363. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.622 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Torpedo Moskva games / 48 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 21% | Draw 24% | Ural 55%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Ural 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ural (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Torpedo Moskva 33% | Ural 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 21% | Draw 24% | Ural 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Torpedo Moskva 1.03 / Ural 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.622 / def 1.177 | Ural attack 1.116 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Ural (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Ural xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs Ural kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs Ural kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs Ural?
Torpedo Moskva 0 - 1 Ural.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs Ural part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs Ural is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 21% chance of winning, Ural a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Ural?
Record (1 meetings): Torpedo Moskva 0W | Draws 0 | Ural 1W.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Ural in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Ural (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Torpedo Moskva's attack at 0.62x the league average against Ural's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Torpedo Moskva's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
21%
4.76
24%
4.12
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.82
1.79
Ural xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
4%
28.56
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.79 for Ural, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs Ural?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Torpedo Moskva's recent record stands at 1W 4D 13L from 18 games, a 0.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 8L across 18 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ural by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torpedo Moskva heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Torpedo Moskva have managed 1W 1D 6L from 8 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ural's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Ural in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 4D 13L in their last 18 games (0.39 PPG), while Ural have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or Ural away?
Ural's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.50 PPG; Ural away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
0
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Ural?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, Ural have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Torpedo Moskva 0-1 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torpedo Moskva see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 25%, Ural 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Torpedo Moskva) and 75% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Torpedo Moskva have failed to score in 62% of games; Ural in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Torpedo Moskva's recent matches and 62% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Torpedo Moskva's recent games and 75% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torpedo Moskva and Ural tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ural in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ural edge out Torpedo Moskva 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Torpedo Moskva 0-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 1.03 xG and Ural 1.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torpedo Moskva fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.62 / defence 1.18 against Ural attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 21% | Draw 24% | Ural 55%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 33%, Ural 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 61% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ural arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.