Torpedo Moskva 1-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Khimki at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Khimki travel to Arena Khimki to take on Torpedo Moskva. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torpedo Moskva stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Premier League matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Torpedo Moskva have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khimki — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Khimki have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Khimki are 1.07 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.33), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Torpedo Moskva in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Khimki in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 67% versus Khimki 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 67% | Khimki 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 1.26 xG and Khimki 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.822 / defence 1.307 | Khimki attack 0.824 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.222. Data: 3 Torpedo Moskva games / 33 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Khimki 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khimki at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Torpedo Moskva 67% | Khimki 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Torpedo Moskva 1.26 / Khimki 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.822 / def 1.307 | Khimki attack 0.824 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Khimki (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Khimki xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki?
Torpedo Moskva 1 - 3 Khimki.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 34% chance of winning, Khimki a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Khimki in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-D. Khimki (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Torpedo Moskva's attack at 0.82x the league average against Khimki's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Torpedo Moskva's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.33
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.58
1.32
Khimki xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.32 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torpedo Moskva come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khimki carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Torpedo Moskva — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Torpedo Moskva have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Khimki in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Torpedo Moskva or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torpedo Moskva have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Khimki in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torpedo Moskva and Khimki runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
0
Draws
2
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Khimki?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, Khimki have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Khimki 4-2 Torpedo Moskva.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and Khimki?
Khimki have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 67%, Khimki 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Torpedo Moskva) and 33% (Khimki).
On the defensive side: Khimki in 33%; Torpedo Moskva have failed to score in 33% of games; Khimki in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Torpedo Moskva's recent matches and 33% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Torpedo Moskva's recent games and 33% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torpedo Moskva and Khimki tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Khimki in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Torpedo Moskva.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Torpedo Moskva 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 1.26 xG and Khimki 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Khimki outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against Khimki attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 67%, Khimki 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Khimki's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Khimki scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.