FC Sochi 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Sochi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Nizhny Novgorod travel to Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht to take on FC Sochi. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Sochi have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Sochi are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Sochi have won 0, Nizhny Novgorod 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Nizhny Novgorod winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Sochi trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 54% versus Nizhny Novgorod 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 64% | Nizhny Novgorod 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.61 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.183 / defence 1.270 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.806 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.236. Nizhny Novgorod bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing FC Sochi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Sochi games / 28 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 45% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Nizhny Novgorod 3.33. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sochi 70% | Nizhny Novgorod 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 45% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Sochi 1.61 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.183 / def 1.270 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.806 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
FC Sochi 0 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 45% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (1 meetings): FC Sochi 0W | Draws 0 | Nizhny Novgorod 1W.
What form are FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Sochi's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Nizhny Novgorod's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
45%
2.20
24%
4.08
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.27 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi's recent record stands at 16W 4D 8L from 28 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 13L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Sochi by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Sochi have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.89 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 16W 4D 8L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
FC Sochi's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 1.86 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.21 PPG.
Have FC Sochi or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sochi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when FC Sochi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sochi's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sochi
1
Draws
5
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 FC Sochi.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod?
Nizhny Novgorod have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 57%, Nizhny Novgorod 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Sochi and 50% for Nizhny Novgorod. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Sochi's games and 64% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Sochi's matches and 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's.
Do FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sochi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 29, as FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.61 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.18 / defence 1.27 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 45% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 30%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 64%, Nizhny Novgorod 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.