Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Nizhny Novgorod welcome Ural to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's home record at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Premier League appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ural stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ural have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Ural's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nizhny Novgorod, 0 for Ural and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ural in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 67% versus Ural 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nizhny Novgorod 56% | Ural 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.99 xG and Ural 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.829 / defence 1.342 | Ural attack 0.850 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.112. Data: 18 Nizhny Novgorod games / 18 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 27% | Draw 31% | Ural 41%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Ural 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ural as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 67% | Ural 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 27% | Draw 31% | Ural 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 0.99 / Ural 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.829 / def 1.342 | Ural attack 0.850 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Ural (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ural xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 0 Ural.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 27% chance of winning, Ural a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural?
Record (1 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 0W | Draws 1 | Ural 0W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Ural (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
27%
3.67
31%
3.18
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.25
1.27
Ural xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.27 for Ural, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Nizhny Novgorod have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 4D 9L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural's form line: 4W 7D 7L from 18 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nizhny Novgorod on 1.06 PPG, Ural on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Ural have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ural in 28%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Ural have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Ural away?
Ural's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.78 PPG; Ural away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ural in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Ural specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
0
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural?
From 6 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 3, Ural have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural?
Nizhny Novgorod have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 67%, Ural 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 22% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 33%; Ural in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 22% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 22% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Ural tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ural in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nizhny Novgorod defy the odds to beat Ural 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat Ural 1-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.99 xG and Ural 1.27 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ural landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.83 / defence 1.34 against Ural attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 27% | Draw 31% | Ural 41%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Nizhny Novgorod win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 56%, Ural 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.06 PPG, Ural 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.