Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Nizhny Novgorod welcome Baltika to Sovcombank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 12:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sovcombank Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at Sovcombank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baltika — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nizhny Novgorod, 1 for Baltika and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Baltika winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nizhny Novgorod 33% | Baltika 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 58% | Baltika 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and Baltika 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.931 / defence 1.121 | Baltika attack 1.101 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.192. Baltika's defence strength of 0.686 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Nizhny Novgorod games / 12 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 30% | Baltika 49%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Baltika 2.04. Baltika hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Baltika 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sovcombank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 12:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 30% | Baltika 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 / Baltika 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.931 / def 1.121 | Baltika attack 1.101 / def 0.686 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Baltika (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Baltika xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika kicked off at 12:15 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Sovcombank Arena.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Sovcombank Arena.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 21% chance of winning, Baltika a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika?
Record (2 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 0W | Draws 1 | Baltika 1W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Baltika (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating (0.93) and Baltika's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
21%
4.66
30%
3.33
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.38
1.47
Baltika xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.6 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.47 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 2W 0D 10L from 12 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 1L across 12 games — 1.92 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baltika by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Nizhny Novgorod are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baltika's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 0D 10L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Baltika have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Baltika away?
Baltika's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.00 PPG; Baltika away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Baltika in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, Baltika have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nizhny Novgorod 50% BTTS, Baltika 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 33% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Baltika in 67%; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 17% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 33% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baltika in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika finished level at 0-0 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and Baltika 1.47 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Baltika landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Baltika attack 1.10 / defence 0.69, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 30% | Baltika 49%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 58%, Baltika 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baltika's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.