Lokomotiv 3-3 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lokomotiv at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokomotiv vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lokomotiv welcome Dynamo to RZD Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokomotiv stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lokomotiv at RZD Arena this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dynamo away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lokomotiv 1.60 PPG, Dynamo 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lokomotiv, 0 for Dynamo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lokomotiv trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dynamo trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lokomotiv 71% and Dynamo 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 57% | Dynamo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 1.39 xG and Dynamo 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 0.999 / defence 1.013 | Dynamo attack 1.066 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.225. Dynamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Lokomotiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Lokomotiv games / 28 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 38% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 36%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokomotiv are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Lokomotiv 60% | Dynamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 38% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Lokomotiv 1.39 / Dynamo 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 0.999 / def 1.013 | Dynamo attack 1.066 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dynamo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokomotiv vs Dynamo kick off?
Lokomotiv vs Dynamo kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs Dynamo?
Lokomotiv 3 - 3 Dynamo.
Where is Lokomotiv vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs Dynamo part of?
Lokomotiv vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 38% chance of winning, Dynamo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lokomotiv and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Lokomotiv vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Dynamo?
Record (1 meetings): Lokomotiv 0W | Draws 1 | Dynamo 0W.
What form are Lokomotiv and Dynamo in?
Lokomotiv (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lokomotiv's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Lokomotiv's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.86
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
2.71
1.32
Dynamo xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.32 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lokomotiv's recent record stands at 12W 8D 8L from 28 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 8L across 28 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lokomotiv on 1.57 PPG, Dynamo on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lokomotiv have managed 9W 1D 4L from 14 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Lokomotiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dynamo's away record stands at 9W 1D 4L across 14 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lokomotiv are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.75 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokomotiv and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 games (1.57 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 16W 4D 8L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or Dynamo away?
Lokomotiv's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 2.00 PPG; Dynamo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lokomotiv or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dynamo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lokomotiv's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
4
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Lokomotiv have won 3, Dynamo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Lokomotiv 1-1 Dynamo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 64%, Dynamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lokomotiv) and 57% (Dynamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokomotiv play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lokomotiv's games and 50% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokomotiv vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lokomotiv's matches and 57% of Dynamo's.
Do Lokomotiv and Dynamo tend to score early?
Lokomotiv have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokomotiv and Dynamo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Lokomotiv and Dynamo drew 3-3 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.39 xG and Dynamo 1.32 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lokomotiv beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dynamo outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Dynamo attack 1.07 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 38% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 36%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 57%, Dynamo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.57 PPG, Dynamo 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.