Lokomotiv 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow meet at RZD Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lokomotiv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokomotiv's home record at RZD Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lokomotiv are significantly better at RZD Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lokomotiv lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Lokomotiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lokomotiv half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokomotiv 74% versus CSKA Moscow 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 53% | CSKA Moscow 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 1.20 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.108 / defence 1.227 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.908 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.211. Data: 19 Lokomotiv games / 20 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 33% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lokomotiv 70% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 33% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lokomotiv 1.20 / CSKA Moscow 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.108 / def 1.227 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.908 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
1.35
CSKA Moscow xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Lokomotiv 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 33% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Lokomotiv 1W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 0W.
What form are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow in?
Lokomotiv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lokomotiv's attack at 1.11x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.91x) against Lokomotiv's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.72
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
2.55
1.35
CSKA Moscow xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.35 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Lokomotiv have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 8W 7D 4L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Lokomotiv against 1.74 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lokomotiv have posted 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lokomotiv are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.21 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 8W 7D 4L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Lokomotiv's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 1.90 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lokomotiv or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokomotiv have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
3
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Lokomotiv have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 70%, CSKA Moscow 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lokomotiv) and 40% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokomotiv play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lokomotiv's games and 40% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lokomotiv's recent games and 40% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Lokomotiv have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Lokomotiv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Lokomotiv 1-2 at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.20 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.35 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.11 / defence 1.23 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 33% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 40%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 53%, CSKA Moscow 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.63 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.