Krylia Sovetov 0-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 July 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 0.00 PPG, Spartak Moscow 0.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.85 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.017 / defence 1.231 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.678 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.372. Data: 1 Krylia Sovetov games / 1 Spartak Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 30% | Spartak Moscow 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Spartak Moscow 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 30% | Spartak Moscow 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.85 / Spartak Moscow 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.017 / def 1.231 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.678 / def 1.178 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Spartak Moscow xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 27% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.02x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.29
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.00
1.15
Spartak Moscow xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.15 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 0.00 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Krylia Sovetov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.85 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.15 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 30% | Spartak Moscow 42%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 100%, Spartak Moscow 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.00 PPG, Spartak Moscow 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.