Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Solidarnost Samara Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 2D 5L at Solidarnost Samara Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 1.20 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Spartak Moscow, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Spartak Moscow have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 60% versus Spartak Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 57% | Spartak Moscow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / defence 1.154 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.056 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.082. Spartak Moscow's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Krylia Sovetov games / 58 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 32% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 37%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Spartak Moscow 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 32% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Spartak Moscow 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / def 1.154 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.056 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Spartak Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 32% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Record (7 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 5W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.02x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
32%
3.17
31%
3.21
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Spartak Moscow xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.32 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 14D 25L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 29W 14D 15L from 58 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.55 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Spartak Moscow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 29W 14D 15L in their last 58 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.52 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 59%, Spartak Moscow 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Krylia Sovetov) and 41% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 41%; Spartak Moscow in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 38% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 32% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 37%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 57%, Spartak Moscow 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.