Krylia Sovetov 1-3 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Krylia Sovetov face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Friday 26 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Rostov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Rostov away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.40 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, FC Rostov edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–2 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 61% versus FC Rostov 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 61% | FC Rostov 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and FC Rostov 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.800 / defence 1.163 | FC Rostov attack 0.954 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.347. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 31 games and FC Rostov's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.87 | Draw 3.29 | FC Rostov 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Krylia Sovetov 31 games, FC Rostov 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.11 / FC Rostov 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.800 / def 1.163 | FC Rostov attack 0.954 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Rostov xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 26 July 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 3 FC Rostov.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.80x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.95x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 31 games and FC Rostov's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
26%
3.87
30%
3.29
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.61
1.50
FC Rostov xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.50 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 8D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Rostov's form line: 12W 8D 11L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.42 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 15 home games (7W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Rostov away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.73 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 5-1 FC Rostov on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
6
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, FC Rostov have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 53%, FC Rostov 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Krylia Sovetov) and 53% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Rostov in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 53% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 53% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 60% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Krylia Sovetov 1-3 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and FC Rostov 1.50 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against FC Rostov attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 61%, FC Rostov 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.32 PPG, FC Rostov 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.