Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Solidarnost Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Krylia Sovetov) versus 1.20 (Dynamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Krylia Sovetov register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dynamo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dynamo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 5–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus Dynamo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 46% | Dynamo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.73 xG and Dynamo 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.896 / defence 0.998 | Dynamo attack 1.266 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.259. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Krylia Sovetov games / 33 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 34%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Dynamo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Dynamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.73 / Dynamo 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.896 / def 0.998 | Dynamo attack 1.266 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Dynamo xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Dynamo.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 40% chance of winning, Dynamo a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Dynamo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.90) and Dynamo's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
40%
2.49
25%
3.93
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.32
1.59
Dynamo xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.59 for Dynamo, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 6D 14L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.76 PPG from 33 outings (17W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 1.36 PPG, Dynamo on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.88 points per game from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.85 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Dynamo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 6D 14L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 17W 7D 9L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.56 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Dynamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
7
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dynamo have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Dynamo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Krylia Sovetov) and 62% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dynamo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 56% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 62% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.73 xG and Dynamo 1.59 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Dynamo attack 1.27 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 34%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dynamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 46%, Dynamo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Dynamo's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.36 PPG, Dynamo 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.