Krylia Sovetov 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.20 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
It is worth noting that CSKA Moscow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 48% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.981 / defence 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.914 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.094. Data: 54 Krylia Sovetov games / 54 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | CSKA Moscow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.28 / CSKA Moscow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.981 / def 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.914 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 43% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (8 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 2 | CSKA Moscow 6W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.98x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.91x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.53
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.25
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.98 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 13W 14D 27L from 54 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 13L across 54 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 7D 10L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 13W 6D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.54 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 games (0.98 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 30W 11D 13L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.31 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Krylia Sovetov) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 31%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games; CSKA Moscow in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.