Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Baltika travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baltika — last 5 games: 1W 0D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Baltika have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 away fixtures (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Baltika trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 100% and Baltika 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 80% | Baltika 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.40 xG and Baltika 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.233 / defence 1.087 | Baltika attack 0.628 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.205. Baltika's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 35 games and Baltika's last 5.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 70% | Draw 21% | Baltika 9%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.42 | Draw 4.79 | Baltika 11.35. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (70%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 3 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 33% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 70% | Draw 21% | Baltika 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.40 / Baltika 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.233 / def 1.087 | Baltika attack 0.628 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Baltika xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 1 Baltika.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 70% chance of winning, Baltika a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.23) and Baltika's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 35 games and Baltika's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
70%
1.42
21%
4.79
9%
11.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.23
0.82
Baltika xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
11.35
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
125.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.82 for Baltika, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Baltika's form line: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Baltika
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Baltika
Early Season
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Baltika have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baltika have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
3
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Baltika have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Krylia Sovetov at 100%, Baltika at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Krylia Sovetov and 40% for Baltika. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baltika in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Baltika matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 40% of Baltika's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 40% of Baltika's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 60% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Baltika 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Baltika 2-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.40 xG and Baltika 0.82 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Baltika attack 0.63 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 70% | Draw 21% | Baltika 9%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 80%, Baltika 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.