FC Krasnodar 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov meet at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Stadion FK Krasnodar: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Krasnodar lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 58% and Krylia Sovetov 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 58% | Krylia Sovetov 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / defence 0.833 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.065. Data: 43 FC Krasnodar games / 43 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Krylia Sovetov 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 40% | Krylia Sovetov 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.90 / Krylia Sovetov 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / def 0.833 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Krylia Sovetov xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 61% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (4 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 2W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.02x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.56
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.80
0.90
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
38.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.90 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 13D 9L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (14W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 63%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 21W 13D 9L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.10 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.90 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 57%, Krylia Sovetov 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for FC Krasnodar and 71% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Krasnodar's games and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.90 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 58%, Krylia Sovetov 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.