Khimki 1-2 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Khimki welcome Arsenal Tula to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki at Arena Khimki this season: 1W 6D 1L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal Tula have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Khimki) versus 1.20 (Arsenal Tula). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khimki register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Arsenal Tula in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khimki, 0 for Arsenal Tula and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Khimki in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 50% versus Arsenal Tula 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 44% | Arsenal Tula 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 2.09 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.921 / defence 1.142 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.821 / defence 1.887. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.139. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.887 — this is suppressing Khimki's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Khimki games / 16 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 60% | Draw 22% | Arsenal Tula 18%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Arsenal Tula 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Khimki (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khimki as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 62% | Arsenal Tula 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 60% | Draw 22% | Arsenal Tula 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Khimki 2.09 / Arsenal Tula 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.921 / def 1.142 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.821 / def 1.887 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Khimki (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Arsenal Tula xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Khimki vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Arsenal Tula?
Khimki 1 - 2 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Khimki vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Khimki vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 60% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Khimki and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal Tula 0W.
What form are Khimki and Arsenal Tula in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khimki's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Arsenal Tula's defensive record (1.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.64
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Khimki xG
Total xG
3.16
1.07
Arsenal Tula xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
44.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Khimki and 1.07 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Arsenal Tula?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 8D 6L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal Tula's form line: 4W 4D 8L from 16 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 0.88 PPG, Arsenal Tula on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khimki have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (1W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Khimki are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal Tula's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.19 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula in 69%.
Defensively: Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 8D 6L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Khimki's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.29 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Khimki or Arsenal Tula been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Arsenal Tula in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Khimki
1
Draws
1
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, Arsenal Tula have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Khimki 1-2 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Arsenal Tula?
Arsenal Tula have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 57%, Arsenal Tula 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Khimki) and 86% (Arsenal Tula).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 29% of games; Arsenal Tula in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Khimki's games and 71% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Khimki's recent games and 86% of Arsenal Tula's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arsenal Tula defy the odds to beat Khimki 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal Tula beat Khimki 1-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 2.09 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.07 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Arsenal Tula outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 / defence 1.89, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 60% | Draw 22% | Arsenal Tula 18%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Arsenal Tula win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 44%, Arsenal Tula 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 0.88 PPG, Arsenal Tula 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal Tula win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.