Khimki 1-3 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Akhmat travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khimki have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Khimki — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Akhmat have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.40 PPG versus Akhmat's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Khimki have won 1, Akhmat 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Akhmat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khimki trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Akhmat trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 53% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 53% | Akhmat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.81 xG and Akhmat 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 1.171 / defence 0.884 | Akhmat attack 0.904 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.208. Data: 34 Khimki games / 34 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 54% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 17%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Akhmat 5.88. Khimki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 60% | Akhmat 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 54% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Khimki 1.81 / Akhmat 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 1.171 / def 0.884 | Akhmat attack 0.904 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Khimki (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Akhmat xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Akhmat kick off?
Khimki vs Akhmat kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Akhmat?
Khimki 1 - 3 Akhmat.
Where is Khimki vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Akhmat part of?
Khimki vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 54% chance of winning, Akhmat a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khimki and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Akhmat?
Record (2 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Khimki and Akhmat in?
Khimki (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Akhmat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 1.17x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.49
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.77
0.96
Akhmat xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
35.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Khimki and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Khimki and 0.96 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khimki's recent record stands at 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 15L across 34 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 1.15 PPG, Akhmat on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khimki have managed 6W 8D 2L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Khimki are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 14W 5D 15L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Akhmat away?
Khimki's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.62 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
2
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Akhmat?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Akhmat have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 56%, Akhmat 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khimki) and 50% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Akhmat in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Khimki's games and 56% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khimki's recent games and 50% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Akhmat tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.81 xG and Akhmat 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Khimki fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Akhmat outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 54% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 17%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 53%, Akhmat 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 1.15 PPG, Akhmat 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.