Fakel 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov meet at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fakel have posted 2W 6D 2L at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fakel have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Krylia Sovetov in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 61% versus Krylia Sovetov 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 43% | Krylia Sovetov 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.38 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.811 / defence 1.076 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.894 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.346. Data: 28 Fakel games / 58 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 36% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 33%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Krylia Sovetov 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 70% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 36% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Fakel 1.38 / Krylia Sovetov 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.811 / def 1.076 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.894 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fakel (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Krylia Sovetov xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Fakel 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 36% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fakel and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in?
Fakel (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.81) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.89x) against Fakel's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.25
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fakel and 1.29 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 12D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Fakel against 1.04 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 3W 8D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.07 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 5W 12D 11L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Fakel's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.21 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fakel
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 64%, Krylia Sovetov 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fakel) and 71% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fakel's games and 64% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Fakel's matches and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Fakel and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fakel edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.38 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 36% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 33%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 43%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 0.96 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fakel win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.