Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dynamo face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC Krasnodar travel to VTB Arena to take on Dynamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at VTB Arena, Dynamo have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Krasnodar — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Krasnodar, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Dynamo.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Dynamo winning.
It is worth noting that FC Krasnodar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo 64% versus FC Krasnodar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 61% | FC Krasnodar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.20 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.217 / defence 0.848 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.194 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.292. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Dynamo games / 36 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 32% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 37%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | FC Krasnodar 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo 50% | FC Krasnodar 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 32% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Dynamo 1.20 / FC Krasnodar 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.217 / def 0.848 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.194 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Krasnodar xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at VTB Arena.
Where is Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 32% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dynamo and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and FC Krasnodar?
Record (10 meetings): Dynamo 3W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 6W.
What form are Dynamo and FC Krasnodar in?
Dynamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dynamo's attack at 1.22x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.16
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.51
1.31
FC Krasnodar xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dynamo and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.31 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 10D 11L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.33 PPG from 36 outings (26W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Dynamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.11 points per game from 18 outings (11W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.97 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 26W 6D 4L in their last 36 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.61 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Dynamo or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo and FC Krasnodar runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2025, when FC Krasnodar won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dynamo
1
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 3, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Dynamo 2-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 61%, FC Krasnodar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Dynamo) and 44% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Dynamo's games and 56% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Dynamo's matches and 44% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Dynamo and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.