Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov meet at Anzhi Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 3W 4D 3L at Anzhi Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dinamo Makhachkala are significantly better at Anzhi Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 0.60 for Krylia Sovetov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dinamo Makhachkala lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 4–0 with Dinamo Makhachkala winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 42% versus Krylia Sovetov 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Krylia Sovetov 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.14 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.739 / defence 0.798 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.975 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.202. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 43 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 34% | Krylia Sovetov 28%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Krylia Sovetov 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dinamo Makhachkala are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Dinamo Makhachkala 50% | Krylia Sovetov 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 34% | Krylia Sovetov 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.14 / Krylia Sovetov 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.739 / def 0.798 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.975 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Krylia Sovetov xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:45 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Dinamo Makhachkala 2 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 38% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 2W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dinamo Makhachkala's attack rating (0.74) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.97x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.93
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.07
0.94
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 0.94 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record stands at 8W 16D 19L from 43 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 21L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.02 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dinamo Makhachkala have managed 6W 8D 7L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.23 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 8W 16D 19L in their last 43 games (0.93 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.24 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dinamo Makhachkala won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 4, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-4 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 48%, Krylia Sovetov 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 48% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 33% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Dinamo Makhachkala's games and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 48% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dinamo Makhachkala cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.14 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.74 / defence 0.80 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 34% | Krylia Sovetov 28%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 23%, Krylia Sovetov 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.93 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.